2023 marked a notable year in the illicit drug market, witnessing the emergence of new drugs and evolving drug trends. Dominating these trends were a significant increase in fentanyl-related incidents and the introduction of novel synthetic drugs, averaging two new substances per week, predominantly sourced from Chinese laboratories.
This article aims to dissect these critical developments, offering an in-depth analysis of 2023's drug landscape. Additionally, we'll venture into predictions for 2024, exploring potential shifts and challenges in the illicit drug world.
On a separate note, 2023 was also a milestone year for the Drug Intelligence Bulletin. We transitioned to Substack, reaching an impressive milestone of 14,500 subscribers. Thanks to your continued support and engagement, articles focusing on these emerging drug trends garnered the most interest. Here, I'll revisit these popular articles, reflecting on what captured our readers' attention the most in 2023.
What’s In Store for the Illicit Drug Market in 2024?
Fentanyl
Without a doubt, fentanyl will still be a problem in 2024. But, I’m interested to see where this goes. The Chapitos, as noted several times in Narco News Weekly, have said that they are not allowing fentanyl production anymore. They followed that statement up with execution of manufacturers still making the drug. Initially, I thought this was just a stunt. The chapitos put this statement out the day after their brother was sent to an American jail in Chicago for smuggling fentanyl. But, we also see that fentanyl seizures are down at the border.
CJNG did not make this declaration though and I’m sure they are more than happy to fill the void. Fentanyl is still being seized at the border as well and the market demands fentanyl. I would expect that fentanyl is still going to occupy a lot of investigative time. I’m also predicting that tranq, fentanyl laced with some type of CNS Depressant drug like Xylazine, will continue to infiltrate the drug supply. The reason for this is simple; fentanyl only lasts for 2-3 hours. By adding Xylazine and other depressants, it can stretch the high out for 8 hours. It’s a bonus that the dealer can put less fentanyl in their street dope, which will stretch out their profit.
Methamphetamine
Methamphetamine seizures are skyrocketing while the price of the drug is plummeting. When I first became a narc in 1995, I bought a pound of methamphetamine for around $15,000. Today, I have friends buying meth undercover for as little as $500 a pound. That means the market is flooded with meth and I’ve never seen it so cheap.
With the flood of methamphetamine coming into the US, also comes an increase in Officer Involved Shootings (OIS) with people high on methamphetamine. I wrote a story in 2022 where I was tracking an increase in OIS’s involving people high on meth. Why is this? The cartels have changed the way they make methamphetamine. With this new formulation, they are now making super potent meth that is increasing psychosis and violent confrontations with the police. If you want to know more about this method of meth manufacturing, I have a 3 hour course on Methamphetamine: From the Lab to the Pipe over at OnlineDrugTraining.com.
So, what lays ahead for methamphetamine in 2024? Conventional wisdom and history would say that it would go down. Historically, every stimulant epidemic is followed by an opiate epidemic. Every opiate epidemic is followed by a stimulant epidemic. That is how it has gone in the past. However, neither the stimulant epidemic nor the opiate epidemic dissipated. With seizures so high, a glut of meth supply in the country that has plummeted the price of methamphetamine, and with a wide open border you can expect meth to remain a problem for 2024.
Synthetic Drugs
As I noted in the beginning of this article, on average two new synthetic drugs came to market each week. It is daunting trying to predict which ones will take hold, but I have had a pretty good track record of predicting the breakout synthetics. The best way to keep track of which synthetic drugs are hitting the market is to pay attention to our posts about quarterly drug stats.
Synthetic drugs will continue to dominate the illicit drug market. This is for several reasons:
People are looking for alternatives to traditional street drugs that are legal, more potent and cheaper
Users need to take employment or court mandated drug testing, but still want to get high. Synthetic drugs offer a way for them to still get high without testing positive. We do put out info each year on what drugs you should be testing for that aren’t traditionally checked in drug tests.
Chinese chemical companies are making a killing selling these drugs around the world.
Expect that traditional plant based drugs, like heroin and cocaine, will slowly be replaced by synthetic drugs. Unless we address China, this problem will not go away.
Top Illicit Drug Articles of 2023
In 2023, the DIB had several million views of our articles. Here are 2023’s top articles.